PV industry: Prices bottom of the lift opportunities outweigh the risks

        Since polysilicon oversupply situation is not serious , and higher sensitivity to demand , the current demand to pick up the case , pre deep down polysilicon prices have started to rebound . From the relevant data, rose 0.46 percent last week after polysilicon prices continue to rise 1.77 percent this week , while maintaining a relatively good shipments in the third quarter, prices are expected to rebound by about 10% . On the other hand , the most downstream component prices have remained stable, if it needs to stimulate further warming , component prices are expected to rebound .

        Three quarters of the PV industry's traditional to start the season, although at present due to policy uncertainties , starts are not significantly increased, but demand in the second quarter of this year, the situation is completely stagnant , some power plants will be placed in the third quarter started . And due to the early drop in prices , generation costs decline further , plus Germany canceled on July 1 of the subsidy reduction , power station ROI has rebounded to acceptable levels , demand is expected to continue to recover.

        Interim results within the expected correction

        Although the second quarter of global stocks remain high , but with a few months to the inventory , stocks have gradually come down , gradually approaching to a reasonable level . Although the decline in the second quarter, the industry boom , but most domestic enterprises rely on low-cost strategy has still maintained a relatively good shipments , from listed companies and distributors get the situation that the majority of business inventories maintained at 1 to 3 months of normal levels , there is a very serious slow-moving situation .

        Although three quarters of the demand is still not clear, but it should be significantly better than in the second quarter , demand continued to recover basically determined. At present, some enterprises have better quality components make up inventory in order to meet future demand season . Overall, the component companies operating rate gradually returned to normal , large enterprises have begun to emerge component capacity constraints .

        Since the early prices fell sharply, the whole industry chain component non- corporate gross margin from last year's level of 20% , gradually fell to 15 % or less, in reporting the results need to be further amended , but this round of reporting the results in the previous sections have been cut down in reflected , we believe that the expectations , there is a great risk of mid-year report . With the decline in the second quarter, the price of polysilicon , the component business three -quarter gross margin will rise slightly , is expected to further the better .

        Industry, there is reversal may

        Our strategy report in May , it has been pre-sentence of the second quarter and early third quarter , there will be a wave of price rebound , while the data from the current price , we believe that prices rebound trend has been basically established, although the rebound height difficult to grasp, but the possibility of further deterioration in industry fundamentals basically no .

        The industry in the third quarter after the start of the season , if demand exceeds expectations, prices are expected to appear reversal, basically no longer exists currently investing big bad, but there is a trade reversal potential for higher excess returns , while , according to the polysilicon and industry correlation trend , if the price further upstream, there are also plates up space , industry, investment opportunities outweigh the risks.